Fargo Plan

Bryan, TX 77845

$289,990D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 229 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,276/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,577
• Tax + insurance: −$568
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-346/mo
• Annual: $-4,156/yr
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.99%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $84,187

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (21.5% below list).
• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, employment D+.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sam Houston El (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 457 students, 38% FRL); Sam Rayburn (math 42% / reading 34%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,173 students, 74% FRL); Travis B Bryan H S (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,419 students, 67% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1718 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Bryan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.