660 Leslie St #8

Ukiah, CA 95482

$15,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax + insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $1,142/mo
• Annual: $13,700/yr
• Cap rate: 97.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 326.20%
• DSCR: 15.51
• 1% rule: 10.51%
• Cash to close: $4,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $15k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $14k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#425 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime D-.
• Ukiah Unified (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,018 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 97.6% vs local median 3.0% in Ukiah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.