26113 Tyler Park

Bedias, TX 77831

$130,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,082/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-152/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-152/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,601 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• North Zulch ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,141 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.8% in Bedias — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.