72 Old Lyme Dr #2

University at Buffalo, NY 14221

$142,500C+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,135 sqft · Built 1966 · Condo · Pending · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,017/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$747
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$395
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $228/mo
• Annual: $2,735/yr
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.85%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $39,900

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $985 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $142k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.7% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.