49 Dogwood Ln

Estell Manor, NJ 08330

$225,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $258/mo
• Annual: $3,097/yr
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#414 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Weymouth Township School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #351 of 612 in NJ (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 6.1% in Estell Manor — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.