2206 12th St

Brownwood, TX 76801

$195,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,732/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$342
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $4/mo
• Annual: $47/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($47/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#781 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Brownwood ISD (town): math 45% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #344 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East El (math 64% / reading 54%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 316 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 54% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 43% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brownwood ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 380 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Brownwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.