5097 Birkdale Dr

Wolverine Lake, MI 48382

$624,900B-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,858 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,277
• Tax + insurance: −$827
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,728
• Net cashflow: $13,638/mo
• Annual: $163,659/yr
• Cap rate: 32.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.53%
• DSCR: 5.16
• 1% rule: 3.60%
• Cash to close: $174,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $625k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($164k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $625k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $616k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#204 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Walled Lake Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #58 of 540 in MI (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Commerce Elementary School (math 68% / reading 64%, grade B+, #127 of 1,397 statewide, top 9%, 561 students, 23% FRL); Clifford H Smart Middle School (math 43% / reading 61%, grade C+, #95 of 493 statewide, top 20%, 934 students, 22% FRL); Walled Lake Northern High School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade B, #41 of 713 statewide, top 6%, 1,485 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $385k; list at $625k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $175k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 32.5% vs local median 3.3% in Wolverine Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.