124 Havenwood Cir

Daphne, AL 36526

$262,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 580 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,013/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$70
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-163/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $73,612

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $263k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-163/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (23.4% below list).
• It's been on market 580 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #3,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Daphne Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 693 students, 53% FRL); Daphne Middle School (math 25% / reading 62%, grade D, #45 of 257 statewide, top 18%, 846 students, 45% FRL); Daphne High School (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #33 of 305 statewide, top 11%, 1,725 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 600 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Daphne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 580 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.