295 Oakland Dr

Gainesville, GA 30501

$398,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,778 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,311/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,090
• Tax + insurance: −$664
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$695
• Net cashflow: $-138/mo
• Annual: $-1,660/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $111,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $398k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $331k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $331k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#181 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Gainesville City (urban): math 23% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #130 of 174 in GA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Arts Academy (math 25% / reading 17%, grade F, #850 of 1,228 statewide, top 70%, 808 students, 73% FRL); Gainesville Middle School East (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 841 students, 73% FRL); Gainesville High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #258 of 424 statewide, top 62%, 2,294 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,274 units permitted in Hall County in 2024 (620 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hall County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.7% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,311/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 2055% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.