3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,124 sqft ·
Built 1982
· Townhouse
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,649/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,080
Tax + insurance
−$303
HOA
−$350
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$556
Net cashflow
$359/mo
Annual
$4,311/yr
Cap rate
8.39%
Cash-on-cash
7.47%
DSCR
1.33
1% rule
1.29%
Cash to close
$57,680
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $206k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $206k).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $194k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Paul & Sheila Wellstone Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #800 of 857 statewide, top 95%, 507 students, 85% FRL); Murray Middle School (math 19% / reading 40%, grade F, #204 of 258 statewide, top 80%, 538 students, 64% FRL); Como Park Senior High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #375 of 471 statewide, top 81%, 1,078 students, 75% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $168k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SRS2H540HJ48ZE
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29