1211 Bryan Ave

Lexington-Fayette, KY 40505

$129,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,487/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $383/mo
• Annual: $4,598/yr
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.64%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arlington Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 301 students, 79% FRL); Bryan Station Middle School (math 23% / reading 42%, grade F, #116 of 217 statewide, top 55%, 815 students, 56% FRL); Bryan Station High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #209 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 1,893 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 44% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fayette County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 68 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $130k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.