16931 Prairie St

Detroit, MI 48221

$229,100D

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,959 sqft · Built 1930 · Townhouse · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,949/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$449
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-111/mo
• Annual: $-1,333/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $64,148

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (14.9% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 12628% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $229k implies a 349% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.