603 S Poplar St

Guthrie, OK 73044

$119,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Pending · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,623/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $548/mo
• Annual: $6,575/yr
• Cap rate: 11.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.73%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Es (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 278 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $119k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.