20371 State Hwy 88 #10

Pine Grove, CA 95665

$34,950B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$147
• Net cashflow: $245/mo
• Annual: $2,940/yr
• Cap rate: 16.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.19%
• DSCR: 2.70
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $9,786

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($700 rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#612 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 2.4% in Pine Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.