3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
784 sqft ·
Built 1909
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,069/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$80
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$224
Net cashflow
$318/mo
Annual
$3,818/yr
Cap rate
10.78%
Cash-on-cash
16.04%
DSCR
1.71
1% rule
1.26%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Robberson Elem. (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #813 of 1,115 statewide, top 75%, 166 students, 89% FRL); Reed Middle (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 512 students, 70% FRL); Central High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 1,464 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 46% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.5% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— Significant wear and tear visible.
Moderate: exterior siding
— Minor discoloration and damage present.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ST76Y19NCRN96M
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29