625 Lincoln St

Emporia, KS 66801

$55,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 666 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $273/mo
• Annual: $3,278/yr
• Cap rate: 12.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.28%
• DSCR: 1.95
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($841 rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#60 in KS, #3,810 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Emporia (town): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #146 of 169 in KS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emporia Middle School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #164 of 219 statewide, top 76%, 900 students, 62% FRL); Emporia High (math 18% / reading 29%, grade F, #161 of 327 statewide, top 50%, 1,510 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lyon County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $55k implies a 633% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.