151 Bay Ave

Greenport, NY 11944

$2,100,000B+

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,500 sqft · Built 1897 · SingleFamily · Active · 641 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $30,844/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,013
• Tax + insurance: −$1,967
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,477
• Net cashflow: $11,388/mo
• Annual: $136,650/yr
• Cap rate: 12.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.24%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $588,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.10M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($137k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($31k rent vs $2.10M).
• It's been on market 641 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.85M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.85M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $63k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#217 in NY, #3,399 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, commute B+; Watch: housing C-, cost of living F.
• Greenport Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #450 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenport Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 339 students, 61% FRL); Greenport High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #934 of 1,100 statewide, top 86%, 356 students, 63% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.35M; list at $2.10M implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $588k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 641 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.