9255 Museo Cir #102

Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$499,000C

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 198 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,254/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$1,258
• HOA: −$1,113
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,313
• Net cashflow: $-47/mo
• Annual: $-564/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-564/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $492k (1.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $499k).
• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $439k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $290k; list at $499k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $6,254/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.