3220 Courtney Dr

Lake Wales, FL 33898

$349,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,046 sqft · Built 1996 · MultiFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$468
• HOA: −$92
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-537/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-537/yr) — negative. Per door: $-22/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (14.9% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $349k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,969/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 148% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.