308 Sheppard Dr

Newnan, GA 30263

$272,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,603 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,781/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,431
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-248/mo
• Annual: $-2,971/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.89%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $76,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (34.7% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#184 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Coweta County (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #36 of 174 in GA (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Western Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #582 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 437 students, 59% FRL); Evans Middle School (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #213 of 470 statewide, top 47%, 770 students, 53% FRL); Newnan High School (math 42% / reading 26%, grade F, #93 of 424 statewide, top 23%, 2,335 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 529 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 963 units permitted in Coweta County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coweta County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $273k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Newnan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.