3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 2001
· Manufactured
· Active
· 91 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,823/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,153
Tax + insurance
−$366
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$593
Net cashflow
$710/mo
Annual
$8,522/yr
Cap rate
10.17%
Cash-on-cash
13.84%
DSCR
1.62
1% rule
1.28%
Cash to close
$61,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $200k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#240 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
Centralia Elementary (suburban): math 59% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #213 of 1,400 in CA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 86 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.2% in Anaheim — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SWWKNK6QV0N2PJ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29