3129 Chestnut St

Shreveport, LA 71109

$16,500D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 831 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $773/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$87
• Tax + insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$162
• Net cashflow: $489/mo
• Annual: $5,863/yr
• Cap rate: 41.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 126.90%
• DSCR: 6.65
• 1% rule: 4.68%
• Cash to close: $4,620

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $16k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($773 rent vs $16k).
• It's been on market 831 days — a 12% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $15k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $114 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $195 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 41.8% vs local median 5.6% in Shreveport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 831 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.