7903 Aberdeen Ave

Lubbock, TX 79424

$318,000D

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,888 sqft · Built 1978 · MultiFamily · Pending · 201 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,818/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax + insurance: −$541
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $18/mo
• Annual: $216/yr
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $89,040

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $318k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($216/yr) — positive. Per door: $9/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (11.4% below list).
• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Whiteside El (math 59% / reading 56%, grade C+, #492 of 4,322 statewide, top 12%, 490 students, 48% FRL); Irons Middle (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 815 students, 71% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?