1533 E Adams St

Phoenix, AZ 85034

$659,000B+

16 bd · 16.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Built 1983 · MultiFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,456
• Tax + insurance: −$1,098
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,015
• Net cashflow: $3,026/mo
• Annual: $36,310/yr
• Cap rate: 11.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.68%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $184,520

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 4-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $659k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive. Per door: $756/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $659k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $70k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North High School (math 11% / reading 15%, grade F, #279 of 381 statewide, top 73%, 2,135 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 34 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $480k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $185k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$113k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $9,595/mo this rent would consume 181% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 480% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.