3294 Highway 277

Vernon, FL 32462

$260,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,190/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-640/mo
• Annual: $-7,676/yr
• Cap rate: 3.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.54%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-640 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (43.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (54.2% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (54.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#834 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kate M. Smith Elementary School (math 58% / reading 60%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 941 students, 61% FRL); Roulhac Middle School (math 61% / reading 53%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 440 students, 54% FRL); Chipley High School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 588 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $260k implies a 845% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.