301 Lewis Ave

Liberty, KY 42539

$95,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1991 · Other · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $973/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $112/mo
• Annual: $1,348/yr
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($973 rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#185 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Casey County (rural): math 39% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #39 of 165 in KY (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Hill Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 394 students, 68% FRL); Casey County Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 513 students, 68% FRL); Casey County High School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #21 of 254 statewide, top 10%, 607 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.
• Casey County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $95k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.0% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.