5154 High Park Hill Dr

Nolensville, TN 37014

$1,027,906D

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,626 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,390
• Tax + insurance: −$1,713
• HOA: −$55
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,365
• Net cashflow: $-2,024/mo
• Annual: $-24,284/yr
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.44%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $287,814

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.03M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $735k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $650k (36.8% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $650k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $67k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#2 in TN, #2,317 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #60 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 623 students, 0% FRL); Fred J Page High School (math 17% / reading 69%, grade F, #20 of 332 statewide, top 6%, 1,284 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.2% in Nolensville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.