19781 Browney Dr

Lake View, AL 35490

$219,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 2020 · Land · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,860/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-50/mo
• Annual: $-602/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-602/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (15.4% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $220k implies a 2215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Lake View — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.