2016 Lake Linda Cir

Land O' Lakes, FL 33558

$179,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,599/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-97/mo
• Annual: $-1,160/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (11.1% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oakstead Elementary School (math 73% / reading 77%, grade A, #218 of 2,144 statewide, top 11%, 1,110 students, 26% FRL); Charles S. Rushe Middle School (math 66% / reading 62%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 1,548 students, 26% FRL); Sunlake High School (math 63% / reading 66%, grade B-, #78 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,159 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 48% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pasco average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Land O' Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.