9310 Cliffwood Dr

Houston, TX 77096

$429,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,290 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,432/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$1,148
• HOA: −$36
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-1,512/mo
• Annual: $-18,149/yr
• Cap rate: 3.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.85%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $429k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (62.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (43.3% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $162k (62.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Meyerland Middle (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 1,133 students, 64% FRL); Bellaire H S (math 45% / reading 62%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 3,170 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 71% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 192 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?