4156 Ky Hwy 721

Hazard, KY 41701

$184,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,555/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax + insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,312/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $51,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Knott County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #109 of 165 in KY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hindman Elementary School (math 23% / reading 40%, grade F, #376 of 676 statewide, top 56%, 430 students, 74% FRL); Knott County Central High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 552 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.
• Knott County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 5.0% in Hazard — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?