1871 SE Tarni Way

Stuart, FL 34996

$452,900F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,782 sqft · Built 2022 · Townhouse · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,189/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,375
• Tax + insurance: −$705
• HOA: −$265
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-825/mo
• Annual: $-9,906/yr
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.81%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $126,812

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $453k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-825 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (32.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $307k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in FL, #790 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities D.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J. D. Parker School of Technology (math 39% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 519 students, 72% FRL); Stuart Middle School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 867 students, 49% FRL); Jensen Beach High School (math 53% / reading 71%, grade B-, #98 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 1,584 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,189/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 247% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.