5223 Victoria St NW

Roanoke, VA 24017

$249,950D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,942/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$355
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-132/mo
• Annual: $-1,584/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $69,986

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#163 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, crime F.
• Roanoke City Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #102 of 131 in VA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Elementary (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 505 students, 100% FRL); Woodrow Wilson Middle (math 38% / reading 63%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 642 students, 99% FRL); William Fleming High (math 66% / reading 68%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 1,911 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 113 units permitted in Roanoke city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roanoke County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $250k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Roanoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,942/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 913% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.