27200 County Road 313

Johnson Village, CO 81211

$85,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Built 1973 · Other · Active · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $769/mo
• Annual: $9,229/yr
• Cap rate: 17.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.78%
• DSCR: 2.73
• 1% rule: 2.04%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $769 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#218 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Buena Vista School District No. R-31 (town): math 23% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #44 of 86 in CO (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Avery/Parsons Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #606 of 966 statewide, top 65%, 435 students, 30% FRL); Buena Vista Middle School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 222 students, 32% FRL); Buena Vista High School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 274 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 289 units permitted in Chaffee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chaffee County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 55% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $85k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.