138 Amelia Dr

Sauget, IL 62206

$17,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 925 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax + insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $842/mo
• Annual: $10,103/yr
• Cap rate: 62.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 201.58%
• DSCR: 9.97
• 1% rule: 6.83%
• Cash to close: $5,012

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $842 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $16k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $537 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#774 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($34k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.