3803 W 17th

Pine Bluff, AR 71602

$37,500B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Built 1972 · Other · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax + insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $415/mo
• Annual: $4,979/yr
• Cap rate: 19.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.42%
• DSCR: 3.11
• 1% rule: 2.28%
• Cash to close: $10,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $38k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($853 rent vs $38k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $36k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $259 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: L. L. Owen Elementary School (math 22% / reading 8%, grade F, #406 of 454 statewide, top 90%, 238 students, 100% FRL); Watson Chapel Jr. High School (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #194 of 201 statewide, top 96%, 463 students, 100% FRL); Watson Chapel High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #276 of 292 statewide, top 96%, 497 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 8.9% in Pine Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.