4412 Grove Landing Dr

Grovetown, GA 30813

$299,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,034 sqft · Built 2009 · Other · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,510/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$447
• HOA: −$31
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-757/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-757/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.1% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#57 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 1,228 statewide, top 29%, 1,150 students, 42% FRL); Grovetown Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #234 of 470 statewide, top 50%, 1,080 students, 49% FRL); Grovetown High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 2,236 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 26% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 724 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $196k; list at $299k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Grovetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.