8260 E Arabian Trl #176

Scottsdale, AZ 85258

$259,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$321
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-980/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-980/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (14.5% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $222k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cochise Elementary School (math 76% / reading 70%, grade A, #39 of 1,109 statewide, top 4%, 615 students, 4% FRL); Cocopah Middle School (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B+, #3 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 886 students, 9% FRL); Chaparral High School (math 40% / reading 35%, grade F, #82 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 2,038 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 21% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.