207 Winchester Ave N

Waynesboro, VA 22980

$145,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1944 · Other · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $1/mo
• Annual: $14/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($14/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (17.2% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $120k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#155 in VA, #4,902 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Waynesboro City Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #108 of 131 in VA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wenonah Elementary (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #933 of 1,108 statewide, top 86%, 223 students, 89% FRL); Kate Collins Middle (math 28% / reading 57%, grade D-, #291 of 342 statewide, top 86%, 644 students, 86% FRL); Waynesboro High (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 905 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 50% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 138 units permitted in Waynesboro city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Waynesboro County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Waynesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.