3501 S Lincoln Ave #76

Vineland, NJ 08361

$219,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,013/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $77/mo
• Annual: $920/yr
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($920/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#363 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Vineland Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #418 of 472 in NJ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dr. William Mennies Elementary School (math 0% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,206 of 1,303 statewide, top 93%, 602 students, 0% FRL); Anthony Rossi Elementary School (math 10% / reading 31%, grade F, #985 of 1,303 statewide, top 76%, 611 students, 0% FRL); Vineland Senior High School (math 10% / reading 34%, grade F, #346 of 399 statewide, top 88%, 2,780 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $149k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Vineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.