368 Plum Springs Rd

Plum Springs, KY 42101

$54,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,872 sqft · Built 1955 · MultiFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $1,275/mo
• Annual: $15,305/yr
• Cap rate: 34.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 101.22%
• DSCR: 5.50
• 1% rule: 3.91%
• Cash to close: $15,120

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $54k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive. Per door: $638/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $54k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#326 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bristow Elementary (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #384 of 676 statewide, top 57%, 651 students, 71% FRL); Warren East Middle School (math 23% / reading 40%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 487 students, 65% FRL); Warren East High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #174 of 254 statewide, top 69%, 1,031 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 42% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 639 active listings in the ZIP; 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 34.6% vs local median 4.0% in Plum Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,110/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 3855% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.