39 Hornbeck Ln

Stone Ridge, NY 12404

$995,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 243 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,425/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax + insurance: −$1,829
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$719
• Net cashflow: $-4,341/mo
• Annual: $-52,090/yr
• Cap rate: 1.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.70%
• DSCR: 0.17
• 1% rule: 0.34%
• Cash to close: $278,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-52k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (65.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $343k (65.6% below list).
• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($876k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $339k (65.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,034 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marbletown Elementary School (math 52% / reading 64%, grade B-, #831 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 257 students, 36% FRL); Rondout Valley Junior High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 243 students, 42% FRL); Rondout Valley High School (math 87% / reading 64%, grade A-, #623 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 569 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 13 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 2.1% in Stone Ridge — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.