1573 Briar Brook Ln

Zebulon, NC 27597

$311,815F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,754 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,635
• Tax + insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-465/mo
• Annual: $-5,585/yr
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $87,308

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $312k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (29.7% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#264 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Zebulon Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,190 of 1,410 statewide, top 86%, 561 students, 76% FRL); Zebulon Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #244 of 475 statewide, top 53%, 708 students, 68% FRL); East Wake High (math 51% / reading 44%, grade D, #331 of 535 statewide, top 62%, 1,646 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 30% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 672 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.