3712 Mary Dr

Oxford, AL 36203

$179,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Contingent · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,333/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-175/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-175/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (25.9% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $133k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#13 in AL, #3,446 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Oxford City (urban): math 27% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #22 of 129 in AL (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oxford Elementary School (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #171 of 627 statewide, top 31%, 794 students, 60% FRL); Oxford High School (math 36% / reading 52%, grade F, #25 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,288 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 114 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Oxford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.