115 N Jefferson St

Zilwaukee, MI 48604

$79,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,227/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$567
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-17/mo
• Annual: $-208/yr
• Cap rate: 12.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.95%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-208/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $77k (3.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#138 in MI, #3,375 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Middle School (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #479 of 493 statewide, top 97%, 397 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 76% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Saginaw School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $80k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.