1009 Patton Creek Ln #1009

Hoover, AL 35226

$168,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 451 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,051/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $573/mo
• Annual: $6,878/yr
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.62%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• It's been on market 451 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#1 in AL, #630 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• Hoover City (urban): math 45% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #8 of 129 in AL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $168k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.4% in Hoover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 451 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.