5302 Cinnamon Ln

Princeton, TX 75407

$215,499C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,171/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,130
• Tax + insurance: −$359
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $166/mo
• Annual: $1,991/yr
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.30%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $60,340

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Severe weathering and discoloration indicate significant damage.
• Major: roof — Signs of wear and tear suggest potential for leaks and structural issues.
• Major: interior walls/paint — The exterior condition suggests potential issues with the interior as well.
• Major: systems — The overall condition suggests potential issues with plumbing, electrical, and HVAC systems.