612 S Lincoln St

Divernon, IL 62530

$80,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 997 sqft · Built 1949 · Other · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,154/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $327/mo
• Annual: $3,925/yr
• Cap rate: 11.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.52%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#463 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Auburn CUSD 10 (town): math 12% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #494 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.