4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #82

Birch Bay, WA 98230

$170,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 166 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,526/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $985/mo
• Annual: $11,815/yr
• Cap rate: 13.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.82%
• DSCR: 2.10
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $985 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $170k implies a 457% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.