20217 Shadowood Cir

Damascus, VA 24361

$349,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · Built 1797 · SingleFamily · Active · 190 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,774/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-688/mo
• Annual: $-8,261/yr
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.45%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-688 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (49.2% below list).
• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#328 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Washington County Public School District (rural): math 68% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #15 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1797 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $349k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1797 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?